
Mike Calabrese

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Mike Calabrese
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Cincinnati Bearcats u5.5+110
2026 NCAAF Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
I agree with 🦆’s accessment @Joshua_Nunn
Here’s his write-up:
Cincinnati found itself cruising to a 7-1 start in 2025 behind the arm of Brendan Sorsby, who posted a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that stretch.
The rubber met the road in the last half of the schedule, however, and Cincinnati didn't win another game after Oct. 25.
The defense couldn't make stops late in the season, and the front seven was shredded on the ground, allowing 240 or more rushing yards to four of its last five opponents.
Sorsby departed for Texas Tech, leaving the Bearcats to turn to either Ivy League transfer Liam O’Brien or journeyman JC French IV, who comes over from Georgia Southern.
Needless to say, a downgrade is expected.
The running back room is completely bare, with five of the top six ball-carriers gone, as is the receiver room, which saw its top five pass-catchers from last year vacate the premises.
Finding explosiveness out of the backs and receivers is going to be crucial for Cincinnati, particularly if French earns the starting quarterback role.
He held onto the rock way too long last year and took 30 sacks but also bailed from the pocket and gave up on the pass progression much earlier than necessary on multiple occasions while at Georgia Southern.
The offensive line looks to be in decent shape, although Cincinnati will be replacing its starting center and right tackle.
With a run game sure to take a step back and a stop-gap quarterback who has a propensity to panic and bail from the pocket, it's safe to assume the sack numbers will increase significantly.
The defense was such a liability game after game, but the problems were masked by the offense winning games, so nobody talked about it.
The front gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season, and pass coverage appeared to be optional at times in the secondary. Cincinnati gave up 20 touchdown passes, compared to just two total team interceptions.
Four of the top defensive backs are gone, so the Bearcats will have to rely on MAC transfers to fill the void.
Leading sack man Jake Golday is also gone. The defensive line loses nine of the top 12 contributors, as this unit returns a combined 22 tackles from last season.
The special teams unit returns nearly intact, but Cincinnati will have to replace a very reliable kicker in Stephen Rusnak, who made 13-of-17 field goals from last season.
The schedule features the home opener against Boston College, followed by FCS Western Carolina and a neutral-site home game against in-state foe Miami (OH) in an NFL stadium.
Cincinnati draws perhaps the toughest Big 12 schedule this season, with five road games and matchups against six of the projected top seven teams in Big 12 league play.
The Bearcats are likely going to be 'dogs in at least seven conference games this season, including:
at Arizona, Oct. 3rd
vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 24th
vs. Utah, Oct. 31st
at Houston, Nov. 7th
at Iowa State, Nov. 14th
at BYU, Nov. 28th
The end of the schedule is brutal, and there's a chance the season goes sideways well before a winnable trip to Ames and Colorado coming to town.
There's too much lost production on both sides of the ball and not enough playmakers to replace the explosiveness this offense had last season. I don't have Cincinnati making a bowl game this season.
5
2
LaNorris Sellers+4000
2026 NCAAF Heisman Trophy Winner
0.25u
Sellers is a polarizing player, full stop. He flashed true greatness in 2024, upsetting Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl, tossing five touchdowns against nationally ranked Mizzou and accouting for 350 total yards in an upset of No. 10 Texas A&M. But 2025 was a mess for Sellers and the Gamecocks, dragging his career record as a starter down to 12-12. He was under fire every time he took a snap, suffering 42 sacks. That constant pressure tanked his passing statistics across the board and his dynamic rushing abilities nearly vanished. He was beat to a pulp and regressed as a result. But the good news is that help is on the way.
South Carolina hired Kendall Briles to be Sellers’ new offensive coordinator and playcaller. Briles has created statistical monsters everywhere he’s been. At Baylor, a combination of Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham set the world on fire (49 Total TDs in 2015). At Houston, Briles unleashed D’Eriq King on the college football world. King exploded for 50 total touchdowns. Briles was on the bleeding edge of RPO exploration, and King created a pick-your-poison dynamic. An RPO-heavy attack also mitigates offensive line issues, which is great news for a USC offensive line that finished 102nd in pass blocking and 120th in run blocking per PFF.
Briles has also elevated a similar player in the SEC four years ago. Across two seasons as Briles’ QB1, K.J. Jefferson completed 68% of his passes, while accounting for 60 total touchdowns. Toss in Briles’ recent work with Josh Hoover at TCU and it’s easy to envision 40 total touchdowns and a boatload of yards for Sellers in this offensive system.
The schedule presents stat-padding opportunities early (Kent State, Towson, Miss State) and five to seven ranked opponents offering ample “Heisman Moment” opportunities. Shane Beamer and his staff brought in eight offensive linemen through the portal and retained Nyck Harbor at wide receiver. If some of their new faces in the trenches pop and Harbor makes the expected leap to All-SEC production levels, Sellers will generate the stats to keep him in the Heisman race all season long. The difference between contending and winning it will come down to the upsets South Carolina generates, but at 40:1 this is an excellent value as a centerpiece to a Heisman portfolio.
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