The Toronto Raptors (46-36) and Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) will meet in Game 1 of their first round NBA playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Cavaliers are 8.5-point favorites over the Raptors on the spread (Cavaliers -8.5), with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. Cleveland is a -355 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Toronto is +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Raptors vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 18.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Prediction
- Raptors vs Cavaliers pick: Raptors +8.5 (-115)
My Cavaliers vs. Raptors best bet is on Toronto to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Odds for Game 1
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 219.5 -115o / -105u | +280 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 219.5 -115o / -105u | -355 |
If you want to trade on Raptors vs. Cavaliers at Kalshi, sign up using our Kalshi promo code. This prediction market app is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets beyond the NBA.
Raptors vs Cavaliers NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview
I want to break this down into components, because betting on a team led by Brandon Ingram makes me feel a little bit ill.
Let’s start with the old maxim that if you’re going to take the underdog, you should believe they can win. Road 'dogs that cover Game 1 of the first round are 61.5% straight up, so I need to believe that there’s a chance they can win this game outright. For the basketball reasons later, I do.
Second we need to ask if the number is right. I make the spread for this game only Cavaliers -3.2 based on my power rating with a 2.5-point homecourt adjustment.
The schedule-adjusted net rating differential between the Cavs and Raptors is 1.3 at DunksAndThrees.com, so if you apply any homecourt advantage number you want to that figure, you’re still well inside the number.
Next, we have the market line from Inpredictable.com, which extrapolates a power rating based on their ATS figures, and that makes this line only Cavs -1.
The DunksAndThrees.com prediction is a seven-point win for the Cavaliers, inside the number. The MasseyRatings.com number would only put these teams about a point apart.
The Raptors won the season series against the Cavaliers (with different rosters early in the season), so it can’t be because of that.
The Cavaliers are effectively being given the kind of respect that is reserved for truly elite teams, which is what the big marquee for Cleveland looks like — but their resume this season simply doesn’t show it.
The Cavaliers surged going into the All-Star Break (and coming out of it). They were great in February — but they were effectively a B-level team the rest of the season, which is why they finished 4th in the East.
So, we have no reason to think this is the right number for Game 1.
Toronto Raptors Betting Preview
Now let’s talk basketball.
The idea is that the Cavaliers are so far above the Raptors offensively that Toronto is drawing dead, but this fundamentally misunderstands Toronto’s identity.
The Raptors are two teams simultaneously.“Inside you, there are two dinosaurs,” something like that.
Toronto's starting unit offense has an offensive rating of 125.3. That’s in line with what the Cavaliers’ starters average.
The Cavaliers’ starters are better on defense; no one’s saying the Cavs shouldn’t be favored. But the Raptors’ bench is stellar defensively with Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Ja’Kobe Walter.
The surface-level analysis says the Raptors can’t shoot and that will be their downfall. But an interesting note? Toronto is the third-best 3-point shooting team since March 1, and 6th-best since All-Star break. They have above-average shooters (Immanuel Quickley, Sandro Mamukaleshvili, Ingram).
The Cavaliers give up a higher amount of mid-range shots than average, and the Raptors have players who can operate in those zones. Cleveland wants to protect the rim and likely will, but the Raptors are strong at the rim.
A big factor in this series is the word “options.” The Cavaliers have good options built around a star-studded roster, with some good role players that Kenny Atkinson has shown various levels of trust in.
The Raptors have a high level of options because they’re not bound to any particular constructs outside of Ingram and Scottie Barnes. They can build defensive lineups with size, small lineups with shooting, single-big, double-big, and other combinations. Maybe none of them work, but the optionality matters.
Shead is a legitimately terrific on-ball defender — and having him defend one of James Harden or Donovan Mitchell in pick-and-roll creates interesting options for defending the other.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Pick, Betting Analysis
Raptors +8.5
Last year in the second round, a far superior version of this Cavaliers team was 8.5-point favorites over a Pacers team with Tyrese Haliburton that went to the Finals.
The question is whether the difference in that Pacers team and this Raptors team is less than or greater than the difference in last year’s Cavaliers team and this year’s Cavaliers team.
The Cavaliers get to show that they coasted the regular season and are ready to contend, really contend, for the first time in the Donovan Mitchell era. I’m just not fully confident this is the team to do it.
I’ll take the points and play Raptors on the moneyline for a slice.
Under 219.5
I make this line 218. We’ve seen this line tick up from the open at 217 to 219.5.
I’m optimistic about the Raptors’ offense, projecting them over their team total, but significantly below on Cleveland’s.
The strongest unit in this game is the Cavaliers’ offense, the second is the Raptors’ defense — and then it becomes a debatable subject between Toronto’s 15th-ranked offense and Cleveland’s 17th-ranked defense.
But, if I think Toronto is going to hang inside the number, that probably means a tighter game with fewer possessions. I lean toward the under.
Sandro Mamukelashvili Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Cavaliers give up the fifth-highest rate of three-pointers in the league, and allow them at a high percentage. They value protecting the rim at all costs.
Likewise, I’m not sure that Jakob Poeltl is going to hold up in drop coverage against the Cavaliers’ guards.
If Toronto has to go to smaller and switch more, Mamukelashvili is the answer. He shoots 40% on catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Mamu averaged 1.7 three-pointers per game vs. Cleveland this season, and I’m expecting more minutes for him in this matchup.
Brandon Ingram 20+ Points
I don’t find Ingram’s game particularly impactful, and I fear him taking over the game offensively for the spread bet.
But on the other hand, the Cavaliers play a deep drop in pick-and-roll. They’ll let you shoot mid-range jumpers all day long, and Ingram shot 47% this year from mid-range.
Ingram will get all the shots he wants from those areas.
Raptors vs Cavaliers Best Bets
- Raptors +8.5 (-115)
- Under 219.5 (-105)
- Sandro Mamukelashvili Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+148)
- Brandon Ingram 20+ Points (-159)
