Friday night in the NBA Play-In Tournament is usually where the reality of a long, 82-game season finally sets in. We’ve reached the finale—the "win or go to Cancun" stage—and if history is any indication, tonight might not be the dramatic photo finish the league office is hoping for.
When the 10-seeds show up to these games, they usually get shown the door, fast. Let's get into my NBA spread picks for Friday’s Play-In double-header.
NBA Spread Picks: Alternate Line Bets for Tonight
- Hornets Spread Escalator
- Suns Spread Escalator
Suns Spread Escalator
The Warriors deserve to leave tonight with a hero’s exit after that wild win over the Clippers with Steph and Draymond looking like 2016 late. And you know what? I think they might just be better off that way.
This team of veterans does not need a week of getting clobbered by all those OKC kids, and Golden State already looked close to letting go of the rope in the first play-in.
No 7-seed has ever missed the postseason, and the home team is 4–1 in the play-in finale when it’s not 8-vs-9, all of them winning by 7+ points with an average margin of victory of 14.3 points.
We had 10 past 10-seeds in play-in history; all but one were eventually eliminated, 8-of-9 by double digits, and 7-of-9 by at least 15 points. When it’s over, it’s super over.
The Suns are uniquely built to punish Golden State’s weaknesses. The Warriors rank in the bottom quarter of the league in number of points allowed on both second chance and off turnovers, and Phoenix ranks top quarter of the league in both offensively.
We know how sloppy the Warriors can get. That could set up for a landslide.
Sorry Steph, I’m taking the Suns escalator: Phoenix -9.5 at +210 and Suns -14.5 at +380 (both Caesars), with a nibble on Suns -19.5 (+650, FanDuel) in case it gets ugly.
Anderson's Suns Spread Escalator for Tonight
- Suns -9.5 (+210, Caesars)
- Suns -14.5 (+380, Caesars),
- Sprinkle Suns -19.5 (+650, FanDuel)
Anderson's Escalator Parlay for Tonight
- Hornets -14.5
- Suns -14.5
Parlay Payout: +2204 (Caesars)
And you know what? Let’s get wild and play both alts together too. Hornets -14.5 and Suns -14.5 is +2204 at Caesars. If Friday night is going to be a boring night for the favorites, we may as well make some cash.
Hornets Spread Escalator
As my play-in trends showed, you don’t necessarily need to trust the home team in this final play-in game — in one scenario. If it’s not 8-vs-9 the home team is 4–1 SU, but in the 8-vs-9 games it’s actually the 9-seed that’s 3–2 despite being the road team.
There’s little question which team is playing better basketball and by far the bigger threat for the rest of the playoffs.
Charlotte leads the league in Net Rating in 2026, and the Hornets are a top-five road team on the season. Orlando is talented but has been nothing but disappointing.
Charlotte is going to have a massive advantage on 3s both ways as long as the shot variance doesn’t kill them, and the Hornets are good at limiting fouls, so that should mute Orlando’s over reliance on its #1 free throw rate.
Last year’s Magic might have wrecked these Hornets with all their turnover issues but this year’s squad hasn’t been as locked in defensively, and Charlotte will get some second chance opportunities too.
The Hornets are just better, and they’re favored on the road for a reason. This team had the best margin of victory of any team in NBA history. When they win, they win big.
The Hornets have 23 double-digit wins in 2026, including 16 by at least 18 points. Let’s play the escalator: Charlotte -9.5 at +209 (DraftKings) and -14.5 at +420, with a nibble on Hornets -19.5 at +690 (both FanDuel).
Anderson's Hornets Spread Escalator for Tonight
- Hornets -9.5 (+209, DraftKings)
- Hornets -14.5 (+420, FanDuel)
- Sprinkle Hornets -19.5 (+690, FanDuel)
