The Atlanta Hawks (46-36) and New York Knicks (53-29) will meet in Game 1 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs tonight. Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Knicks are 5.5-point favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Knicks -5.5), with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. New York is a -225 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hawks vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 18.
Hawks vs Knicks Prediction
- Hawks vs Knicks pick: Knicks -5.5 (-108)
My Knicks vs. Hawks Game 1 best bet is on New York to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Hawks vs Knicks Odds
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 217.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 217.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Hawks vs Knicks NBA Preview
New York Knicks Betting Preview
I make the spread for this game inside the number, but will going against my model based on matchup.
The Knicks are just so much bigger than Atlanta.
If you go back and watch the regular season matchups, a familiar problem arises. The Hawks can’t contain Jalen Brunson on switches or in drop coverage, so they try and force the ball out of his hands with blitzes, playing at the level of the screen.
However, the Hawks aren’t especially good at this type of coverage — and it leaves gaps that allow passes to the roller.
If it’s OG Anunoby, he’s able to shoot, drive, or kick to shooters. If it’s Karl-Anthony Towns, he can make the short jumper or drive for a finish. If it’s Mitchell Robinson, he just dunks it.
Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview
The Hawks have no rim protection because they’ve gone smaller since trading Kristaps Porzingis.
They have no one to tag the opposing roller, which leaves the rim exposed. Just imagine Robinson dunking over and over again.
The Knicks can slam the Hawks on the glass and on lobs. Plus, they have the shooting to compensate.
Atlanta is also reliant on inconsistent perimeter scorers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker should have a great series — but CJ McCollum faces a tough set of defenders.
Hawks vs Knicks Pick, Betting Analysis
Knicks -5.5
Overall, the Knicks’ high floor offensively combined with their size advantage have me adjusting this number to a where I expect them to cover.
I'll lay the points with New York in Game 1.
Over 217.5
I don’t trust the Knicks’ defense, and I think the Hawks will be overwhelmed by the Knicks’ offense.
Atlanta’s defense has been terrific since All-Star Break, but this is a whole other level they have to face.
Some may wonder about the Knicks’ consistency, but they are one of the most consistent offensive teams in the league. They have shooting, size, creation, and discipline. New York can shoot and rebound; it's that simple.
I think Atlanta will get overwhelmed in this spot, and even if they find offensive answers with NAW and Onyeka Okongwu pick-and-pop spacing, the Knicks are likely to keep pace.
Atlanta’s transition defense has also been surprisingly vulnerable.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is an elite corner three shooter at 48%, and the Knicks give up an above-league-average figure there.
The Knicks also give up a high number of above the break threes, and and NAW shoots those at 37%. He’s the one guy I expect to score for Atlanta.
Hawks vs Knicks Best Bets
- Knicks -5.5 (-108)
- Over 217.5 (-110)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+104)
