The final seat at the Western Conference playoff table will be decided at the Mortgage Matchup Center tonight, as the Golden State Warriors (37-45) face off against the Phoenix Suns (45-37) in the finale of the NBA Play-In Tournament. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Suns are 2.5-point home favorites over the Warriors (Suns -2.5), with the total currently stationed at 219.5 points. Phoenix is a -142 favorite on the moneyline, while Golden State is listed at +120 to pull off the road upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for tonight's play-in game.
Warriors vs Suns Prediction
- Warriors vs Suns pick: Suns -2.5 (-115)
My Suns vs. Warriors best bet is on Phoenix to cover the spread in tonight's game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 219.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 219.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
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Warriors vs Suns Preview for NBA Play-In Tournament
Favorites in the second play-in tournament game are 8-0 SU and ATS. I make the spread for this game Suns -4.3.
Additionally, no 7-seed has ever failed to make the playoffs in the five years of the play-in tournament; the Suns would be the first.
Steph Curry had a masterful game in Los Angeles in the opening round of the play-in — but this is the Warriors' second straight road game.
The 10-seeds are 1-9 in making the playoffs, and the Heat were actually favored last year.
Phoenix has been the better team all season — and even with Steph back, the Warriors may have hit their high point in the win over the Clippers, which was a game against an old rival with familiar faces.
It’s tempting to back the old grizzled 'dogs to once more make a run — but the reality is that the Warriors are banged up, tired, and don’t have the legs right now.
Kristaps Porzingis will likely have issues against the Suns’ physical defense — and Phoenix has great guards like Jordan Goodwin to chase Curry around.
Warriors vs Suns Picks, Analysis
Suns -2.5
I’ll go light on this one. The Suns have been slipping for a while and don’t have the best player on the floor.
However, after a pretty outlier bad performance against the Blazers last game, I think they snap back here and make the playoffs.
Under 219.5 (Lean)
I make the total right on the money at 219.5, and I lean toward the under.
The Warriors’ offense lacks firepower despite Curry’s heroics, and the Suns are much more of a grind-it-out team.
It should be noted that the Warriors and Suns rank 1st and 7th in three-point rate, respectively.
If these teams heat up, this will blow over the total — but both defenses know that coming in.
I’ll stay away from the total and stick with the Suns’ side.
Warriors vs Suns Best Bet
- Suns -2.5 (-115)
